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- 1. July 2024 – Surface air temperature and sea surface temperature highlights:
- 2. July 2024 – Hydrological highlights:
- 3. July 2024 – Sea Ice highlights
- 4. More Information
- 5. About Copernicus and ECMWF
Newsflash
Bonn, 08/08/2024
Monthly global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) relative to 1850–1900 from January 1940 to July 2024, plotted as time series for each year. 2024 is shown with a thick red line, 2023 with a thick orange line, and all other years with thin grey lines. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service /ECMWF.
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The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission with funding from the EU, routinely publishes monthly climate bulletins reporting on the changes observed in global surface air and sea temperatures, sea ice cover and hydrological variables. Most of the reported findings are based on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, using billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world.
July 2024 – Surface air temperature and sea surface temperature highlights:
July 2024 was both the second-warmest July and the second-warmest month globally in the data record, with an average ERA5 surface air temperature of 16.91°C, 0.68°C above the 1991-2020 average for July, and only 0.04°C lower than the previous high set in July 2023.
This marks the end of a 13-month period when each month was the warmest in the ERA5 data record for the respective month of the year. While unusual, a similar length streak of monthly global temperature records happened previously in 2015/2016 during the last strong El Niño event.
Although July 2024 was not quite as warm as July 2023 on average, the Earth experienced its two hottest days in the ERA5 data record. The daily global-average temperature reached 17.16°C and 17.15°C in ERA5 on 22 and 23 July. Given the small difference, similar to the level of uncertainty in the ERA5 data, we cannot say which of the two days was the hottest with complete certainty.
According to ERA5 data, the month was 1.48°C above the estimated July average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period, marking the end of a series of 12 consecutive months at or above 1.5°C.*
The global-average temperature for the past 12 months (August 2023 – July 2024) is 0.76°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.64°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
The year-to-date (January–July) global temperature anomaly for 2024 is 0.70°C above the 1991-2020 average, 0.27°C warmer than the same period in 2023. The average anomaly for the remaining months of this year would need to drop by at least 0.23°C for 2024 not to be warmer than 2023. This rarely happened in the entire ERA5 dataset, making it increasingly likely that 2024 is going to be the warmest year on record.
The average European temperature for July 2024 was 1.49°C above the 1991-2020 average for July, making the month the second warmest July on record for Europe after July 2010.
European temperatures were most above average over southern and eastern Europe, but near or below average over northwestern Europe.
Outside Europe, temperatures were most above average over the western United States and western Canada, most of Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and eastern Antarctica.
Temperatures were below average over western Antarctica and parts of the United States, South America, and Australia.
The sea surface temperature (SST) for July 2024 over 60°S–60°N was 20.88°C, the second-highest value on record for the month, and only 0.01°C below July 2023. This marks the end of a 15-month period when the SST had been the warmest in the ERA5 data record for the respective month of the year.
The equatorial Pacific had below-average temperatures, indicating a developing La Niña, but air temperatures over the ocean remained unusually high over many regions.
*Datasets other than ERA5 may not confirm the 12-month streak highlighted here, due to the relatively small margins above 1.5°C of ERA5 global temperatures for July and August 2023 and May and June 2024 and differences among the various datasets.
Daily global-average surface air temperature for 2024 (red), 2023 (orange), and all years between 1940 and 2022 (grey). To see the most recent version of this chart, visit Climate Pulse. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.
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According to Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): "The streak of record-breaking months has come to an end, but only by a whisker. Globally, July 2024 was almost as warm as July 2023, the hottest month on record. July 2024 saw the two hottest days on record. The overall context hasn’t changed, our climate continues to warm. The devastating effects of climate change started well before 2023 and will continue until global greenhouse gas emissions reach net-zero."
July 2024 – Hydrological highlights:
July 2024 was wetter than average in northern Europe over much of Fennoscandia, the Baltic states, areas surrounding the North Sea such as Denmark, the Netherlands, northern France and England, as well as Türkiye in the southeast. Heavy precipitation led to flooding in parts of the Baltic states.
The month was slightly drier than average over Ireland, Scotland, most of Iceland and the Iberian Peninsula, and substantially drier than average across a large region spanning from western Russia southwards including the Balkans and peninsular Italy. There are ongoing drought warnings in southern and eastern Europe.
Outside Europe, in July 2024, it was wetter than average over southern and central North America, with much of the precipitation associated with Hurricane Beryl, and Alaska. It was also wetter than average across the Korean peninsula and eastern China, with significant flooding reported.
Drier-than-average conditions were seen across western North America, eastern Russia, southern South America, and southern Africa including Madagascar. Severe wildfires occurred in boreal and western North America.
July 2024 – Sea Ice highlights
Arctic sea ice extent was 7% below average, more below average than in 2022 and 2023 but not as much as the record -14% observed in 2020.
Sea ice concentration anomalies were below average across most of the Arctic Ocean, especially along the northern coast of Siberia.
Antarctic sea ice extent was 11% below average, the second-lowest extent for July in the satellite data record, behind the lowest July value of -15% observed in 2023.
Sea ice concentration anomalies in the Southern Ocean were dominated by much below average concentrations in the Indian Ocean sector.
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More Information
More information about climate variables in May and climate updates of previous months as well as high-resolution graphics can be downloaded here.
Answers to frequently asked questions regarding temperature monitoring can be found here.
Temperature monitoring FAQs
Follow near-real-time data for the globe on Climate Pulse here.
More on trends and projections on Climate Atlas here.
Information about the C3S data set and how it is compiled:
Temperature and hydrological maps and data are from ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service’s ERA5 and ERA5-Land (surface soil moisture) datasets.
The findings about global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) presented here are based on SST data from ERA5 averaged over the 60°S–60°N domain. Note that ERA5 SSTs are estimates of the ocean temperature at about 10m depth (known as foundation temperature). The results may differ from other SST products providing temperature estimates at different depths, such as 20cm depth for NOAA’s OISST.
Sea ice maps and data are from a combination of information from ERA5, as well as from the EUMETSAT OSI SAF Sea Ice Index v2.2.
Regional area averages quoted here are the following longitude/latitude bounds:
Globe, 180W-180E, 90S-90N, over land and ocean surfaces.
Europe, 25W-40E, 34N-72N, over land surfaces only.
About the Data and Analysis
Information on national records and impacts:
Information on national records and impacts are based on national and regional reports. For details see the respective temperature and hydrological C3S climate bulletin for the month.
C3S has followed the recommendation of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to use the most recent 30-year period for calculating climatological averages and changed to the reference period of 1991-2020 for its C3S Climate Bulletins covering January 2021 onward. Figures and graphics for both the new and previous period (1981-2010) are provided for transparency.
More information on the reference period
About Copernicus and ECMWF
Copernicus is a component of the European Union’s space programme, with funding by the EU, and is its flagship Earth observation programme, which operates through six thematic services: Atmosphere, Marine, Land, Climate Change, Security and Emergency. It delivers freely accessible operational data and services providing users with reliable and up-to-date information related to our planet and its environment. The programme is coordinated and managed by the European Commission and implemented in partnership with the Member States, the European Space Agency (ESA), the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), EU Agencies and Mercator Océan, amongst others.
ECMWF operates two services from the EU’s Copernicus Earth observation programme: the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). They also contribute to the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS), which is implemented by the EU Joint Research Centre (JRC). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 35 states. It is both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing and disseminating numerical weather predictions to its Member States. This data is fully available to the national meteorological services in the Member States. The supercomputer facility (and associated data archive) at ECMWF is one of the largest of its type in Europe and Member States can use 25% of its capacity for their own purposes.
ECMWF has expanded its location across its Member States for some activities. In addition to an HQ in the UK and Computing Centre in Italy, offices with a focus on activities conducted in partnership with the EU, such as Copernicus, are in Bonn, Germany.
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service website can be found at http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/
The Copernicus Climate Change Service website can be found at https://climate.copernicus.eu/
More information on Copernicus: www.copernicus.eu
The ECMWF website can be found at https://www.ecmwf.int/
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