Sunshine is at a premium, at the moment. Wednesday saw the best of the sunshine across eastern Scotland, with Leuchars seeing 6.9 hours, but after a bright start in the east, many places became cloudy. Today is similar with weather fortunes, sunshine was short-lived in the east this morning, with cloud and patchy rain spreading east across most parts through the day. Friday should turn into a brighter day after perhaps a cloudy start in the south, but with some showers in the northwest.
However, the weather should improve through the weekend, as high pressure builds up from the south. This is thanks to the jet stream buckling upstream over the Atlantic to the west of Ireland, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build north across the UK, bringing sunnier and increasingly hot conditions across the south on Sunday. The jet stream, which is very flat across North America and the North Atlantic this week, buckles upstream over eastern Canada and NE USA thanks to tropical storm Debby tracking northeast and introducing tropical energy – buckling the jet stream. This then acts to send a wave in the jet stream across the Atlantic towards Europe, encouraging high pressure to build.
Tropical Storm Debby moves northeast across northeastern states of the USA over next few days, buckling the the jet stream as its energy bumps into it ...
Some uncertainty for Monday, it could be the hottest day of a brief burst of heat arriving on Sunday from the south, though the sunshine and heat, with temperatures reaching 30-32C, looks to be confined to SE England. Elsewhere cloudier with heavy and thundery downpours, which will herald a change to more cooler, fresher, windier and more unsettled conditions off the Atlantic for the rest of the week.
The jet stream buckling over the North Atlantic, as a result of TS Debby upstream, will build high pressure over UK on Sunday while also pulling in very warm air, so turning hot in the south.
Today
In more detail for today, after a bright start with sunshine across eastern Scotland, southern and eastern England this morning, cloudier skies have spread east across most areas this afternoon. The cloud thick enough for some patchy rain or drizzle in places, with more organised and heavy rain moving in across N. Ireland and western Scotland through this afternoon. Outbreaks of rain, heavy and persistent in places, will then spread east across Scotland and the far north of England this evening, remaining cloudy with patchy rain in places further south. Temperatures reaching 20-23C across England, Wales and N. Ireland, 15-19C across Scotland.
Late Thursday afternoon radar and satellite
Friday
Rain clearing northern areas to well-scattered showers and clear spells tonight, cloudy across southern southern areas - with a band of showery rain along a cold front clearing southeast, clearing SE England by mid-morning, then becoming drier and sunnier across much of England, Wales and eastern Scotland through the day, showers affecting western Scotland, Cumbria and N. Ireland. Temperatures reaching 18-20C across northern and western areas, 21-25C across central, southern and eastern England.
Weekend - heat building on Sunday
As mentioned, an improving picture over the weekend.Saturday may start cloudy with patchy rain across England and Wales and blustery showers across NW Scotland, but it should turn drier and brighter through the afternoon. Sunday is looking the better day, with high pressure more in charge, with widespread sunshine and very warm or hot across England and Wales, temperatures reaching 25-28C across southern half of Britain, perhaps 30C in London area.
Monday hot in the southeast
Monday may see temperatures even higher towards SE England for a time, perhaps reaching 32C in sunshine, but elsewhere the weather is on the change, with heavy thundery downpours and cooler air moving in from the west.
Turning unsettled and cooler rest of the week
After another very warm, perhaps hot, day for eastern England, rain moving into the west through the afternoon will herald the start of a more mobile westerly pattern which looks to take over from Wednesday and may persist beyond next weekend. This will mean areas of low pressure moving east over or just north of the UK, with associated frontal systems bringing spells of rain or showers at times while remaining on the cool side and perhaps windy at times too.
